California Tree Nut Production Outlook for 2024 is Mixed
By Jock O’Connell
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has released the official 2024 reports for a number of different California tree nut crops. Starting with the California Walnut Industry Objective Measurement Report for 2024, California walnut production is forecast at 607,814 metric tons (mt), down 19% from 2023’s production of 747,520 mt. The forecast is based on 370,000 bearing acres, down 4% from 2023’s estimated bearing acreage of 385,000 acres.
USDA meanwhile estimates that California’s almond production in 2024 will amount to 2.80 billion meat pounds, 13% higher than last year's crop of 2.47 billion meat pounds. The forecast is based on 1.38 million bearing acres. Production for the Nonpareil variety is forecast at 1.10 billion meat pounds, 17% above last year’s deliveries of 941 million meat pounds. The Nonpareil variety represents 39% of California’s total almond production.
Finally, the USDA forecasts a 69% surge in pistachio production in California due to high yields from the on-year of the alternate bearing crop cycle as well as increased bearing acreage. The forecast is based on data from processors’ producer delivery reports and acreage surveys from the Administrative Committee for Pistachios. Exports are expected to rise 32% to a record 390,000 tons on higher shipments to top markets, including the European Union and China. U.S. pistachio output accounted for 63% of the global output in 2023-24. Turkey and Iran accounted for 15% and 14% of the global pistachio crop, respectively.
Tempering the outlook, though, is an October 7 report from Rabobank, the Dutch lender that has long been a major financer of agricultural operations in California. That report suggests that the period of rapidly expanding acreage may be over. From 2011 to 2023, California's pistachio-planted area increased by over 372,000 acres, with projections suggesting a bearing area of 590,000 acres by 2028. However, the bank’s analysis observed that “industrywide challenges, such as the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in California, are expected to limit new plantings, signaling a shift from rapid growth to a maturity stage in production”.